Lebanon Reporter

Features

September 25, 2012

VIDEO: Can Romney replicate Bush's 2004 path to victory

There's little question that come Nov. 6 President Barack Obama won't equal the 365 electoral votes that the then-candidate Obama won in the 2008 election.

But the bigger and more important question when it comes to the electoral college conversation is whether former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney can come close to replicating the path to victory that then-President George W. Bush took during his 2004 reelection race. At the moment that looks like a dicey proposition, and that should make Republicans very nervous.

Let's start with the Bush map that delivered him 286 electoral votes and a second term. Bush won 31 states - a sum that included victories in the following swing states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Those five wins gave Bush 73 electoral votes and the presidency.

If Romney was able to exactly follow Bush's 2004 winning map, he would wind up with 292 electoral votes - due to population changes reflected in the decennial reapportionment of congressional seats in 2011 - but that scenario seems unlikely.

New Mexico and its five electoral votes will go for Obama. In Iowa, a state the Romney team had real hopes of winning, those hopes have faded somewhat with a new NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal poll showing Obama up eight points, and even GOP operatives privately conceding the state is not moving in their direction.

Subtract New Mexico and Iowa from Romney's total and he drops to 281 electoral votes - still enough for him to win. But that's not the full picture. Poll after poll shows Romney steadily behind - in mid-single-digits - in Ohio. Subtract Ohio (as well as New Mexico and Iowa) from Romney's attempt to re-create the Bush map and he drops to 263 electoral votes and loses.

And that's not even considering the fact that the three other swing states Bush won in 2004 - Colorado, Florida and Nevada - are, at best, toss-up races right now for Romney. (A new independent poll in Florida released over the weekend showed Obama at 48 percent among likely voters to Romney's 47 percent.)

Or the fact that some states that President Bush never worried about - Virginia and North Carolina in particular - are quite competitive; a new Washington Post poll shows Obama with a statistically significant lead over Romney in Virginia. (Democrats insist they have data that shows Arizona to be a low single-digit race, but we remain unconvinced Obama can win there after losing it in 2008.)

Text Only
Features

Featured items
Twitter Updates
Follow us on twitter
AP Video
Johnson: Six Arrests, No Tear Gas in Ferguson Raw: Rescue, Relief Efforts at Japan Landslide Cadavers, a Teen, and a Medical School Dream Raw: Woman Escorted From Ferguson Protests California Drought Stings Honeybees, Beekeepers Officer Who Pointed Gun at Protesters Suspended Holder Hopes to Bring Calm to Ferguson Today in History August 21 Holder Pledges Top Investigators for Ferguson US Mission to Rescue Hostages in Syria Failed Manfred, Torre and MLB Take Ice Bucket Challenge Bank of America Reaches Record $17B Settlement Holder Reassures Ferguson Community With Visit GlobalPost CEO Remembers Foley As a Brave Man Seth Meyers Rolls Out Emmy Red Carpet Obama: World Is Appalled by Murder of Journalist Israel, Militants Trade Fire After Talks Fail Pres. George W. Bush Takes Ice Bucket Challenge Pierce Brosnan's Call to Join the Expendables Changes Coming to No-Fly List
Parade
Magazine

Click HERE to read all your Parade favorites including Hollywood Wire, Celebrity interviews and photo galleries, Food recipes and cooking tips, Games and lots more.
Hyperlocal Search
Premier Guide
Find a business

Walking Fingers
Maps, Menus, Store hours, Coupons, and more...
Premier Guide